Trump Impeachment Betting
- President Donald Trump was acquitted in his first Senate impeachment trial in February 2020. The betting odds also favor Trump getting acquitted in his second impeachment trial, which is expected.
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When looking at the various Trump impeachment odds available, the one prop that I believe is offering some betting value is “How many senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by April 29?” with 55 or 56 coming in as the favorite at +180. As of Friday, UK betting markets have President Donald Trump’s odds of being impeached for a second time at -556, implying an 84.8% chance he is impeached again. Donald Trump's Impeachment Odds Slashed by UK Oddsmakers. Get the latest odds and news from Donald Trump's impeachment trial as bettors back US senators not to convict the former president, reports Max Liu. It's 4/9 that 55-59 senators will vote to convict. It's 16/1 to that 65 or more will do so.
Odds Of Senate Impeaching Trump
Will Trump Resign?
This is an important distinction. It remains very hard to see 23 Republican Senators convicting their president. Trump’s base remains loyal. However, a few more weeks of this terrible news cycle, which would be elevated in the case of a Senate trial, and vulnerable incumbents may start to panic. Most notably Senate leader Mitch McConnell is facing a serious challenge in Kentucky.
Pressure could, theoretically at least, be brought to bear. The case of the last president to leave office early – Richard Nixon – is pertinent. ‘Tricky Dicky’ never faced the Senate trial – he resigned, handing power to his Vice President Gerald Ford, and duly received a pardon.
Trump Impeachment Betting Line
Whether he listens or not, Trump must be receiving similar legal advice. As Robert Mueller made clear, he is not immune from prosecution after leaving office. Asides from the particular allegations that led to impeachment, dozens of criminal and congressional investigations are ongoing, for which Trump could yet be liable. The implications of the Russia investigation have not fully played out yet – Roger Stone’s trial in November will likely release information from redacted sections of the Mueller Report.